Tuesday, 3 November 2009

DRAW THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR

Match preview
Lyon v Liverpool
Wednesday, 7.45pm, on ITV1

I'm afraid it's only blind faith that stops us backing Lyon to take the points on Wednesday night.
There seems little need to go through the vale of tears again but the performance against Fulham, particularly in the second half, plumbed new depths.
There are lots of excuses - chiefly the crippling injuries depriving Rafa of half his team - but that doesn't change the size of the task ahead.
The chink of light is the performance against Manchester United. Torres was rightly lauded for his brilliant goal but Fabio Aurelio was our man of the match and he'll be missing in France. For whatever reason, Insua has really struggled since playing for Argentina in the World Cup and it was Aurelio who kept Manchester United quiet out wide, not the young left-back.
Lyon attack down the flanks and it will be another test for Insua - so much so that Benitez must be considering playing Agger at left-back or deploying a 3-5-2 formation.
The other spanner in the works is the need for three points. If we scrape a draw, it means Lyon have to beat Fiorentina in Italy for us to have any chance of going through. The mood isn't lifted much when you have a look at the betting for the Europa League - Liverpool are 9-1 favourites!!
Going back to the positives, Lyon are enduring the same kind of run as the Reds in their league, although they did win at the weekend.
But I just cannot make out a credible case for backing Liverpool to win at the general 2-1 on offer. Other than "we always get ourselves out if it" you just can't see Voronin, Ngog, Lucas and the boys digging deep enough to do it.
Lyon are only 11-8 but they won't go all out because they don't have to and the draw looks a good option at 12-5 with Stan James.

SELECTION:
Draw (12-5 Stan James)

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