*** BEFORE looking at Thursday's game, apologies for the disappearing act a few months ago. I'm out now and can tell you, sex addiction clinic is no picnic ***
Unirea v Liverpool
Thursday, 6pm, live on ESPN
The first leg at Anfield was no fun-fest and things shouldn't be too different in Bucharest. Unirea looked a much better side than most people expected but they showed very little going forward.
You would expect them to operate similar tactics again, hoping to keep things tight and then nick a goal some time in the second half.
It's a concern that Unirea beat Seville in their last European home game but Liverpool have become adept again at closing games down and I can't see them letting a goal in. At the same time, there won't be a lot of action at the other end - Liverpool have scored exactly one goal in 10 of their 11 cup games this season.
That makes a nice 1-0 win the most likely result, with a bet also advised on 2-0 in case the home side go too attacking and get caught late on.
SELECTION: Liverpool to win 1-0 (11-2 Sky Bet); Liverpool to win 2-0 (15-2 Sky Bet)
In the first goalscorer market, Dirk Kuyt has a habit of notching in games like this and he looks a a decent bet at 13-2 with Coral to hit the target first.
The Reds are just 4-11 to beat Birmingham tonight and, while they should get the three points, the bookies are having a laugh with those odds. Liverpool are still struggling with a long injury list and Torres may have reached the end of the line thanks to his hernia problems We could see Ryan Babel given another chance after his wondergoal in Lyon and, along with Kuyt and Benayoun, that should give enough firepower if El Nino is left out. The Brummies have caused a lot of problems at Anfield in recent seasons, bagging draws that have proven costly, but Benitez seems to have found a formula for beating these so-called lesser teams on his own patch. So, injuries or no injuries, Liverpool to win and keep a clean sheet is the verdict at 11-10 with most bookies gets the nod. SELECTION: Liverpool to win to nil (11-10 general)
Match preview Lyon v Liverpool Wednesday, 7.45pm, on ITV1 I'm afraid it's only blind faith that stops us backing Lyon to take the points on Wednesday night. There seems little need to go through the vale of tears again but the performance against Fulham, particularly in the second half, plumbed new depths. There are lots of excuses - chiefly the crippling injuries depriving Rafa of half his team - but that doesn't change the size of the task ahead. The chink of light is the performance against Manchester United. Torres was rightly lauded for his brilliant goal but Fabio Aurelio was our man of the match and he'll be missing in France. For whatever reason, Insua has really struggled since playing for Argentina in the World Cup and it was Aurelio who kept Manchester United quiet out wide, not the young left-back. Lyon attack down the flanks and it will be another test for Insua - so much so that Benitez must be considering playing Agger at left-back or deploying a 3-5-2 formation. The other spanner in the works is the need for three points. If we scrape a draw, it means Lyon have to beat Fiorentina in Italy for us to have any chance of going through. The mood isn't lifted much when you have a look at the betting for the Europa League - Liverpool are 9-1 favourites!! Going back to the positives, Lyon are enduring the same kind of run as the Reds in their league, although they did win at the weekend. But I just cannot make out a credible case for backing Liverpool to win at the general 2-1 on offer. Other than "we always get ourselves out if it" you just can't see Voronin, Ngog, Lucas and the boys digging deep enough to do it. Lyon are only 11-8 but they won't go all out because they don't have to and the draw looks a good option at 12-5 with Stan James.
So how do you make a case for a home win in Rafa's Benitez's own Grand Slam Sunday (copyright all newspapers) against Manchester United?
Steven Gerrard is missing, Fernando Torres is coming back from injury and Glen Johnson can hardly be expected to fire on all cylinders.
Without Gerrard, Rafa may go 3-5-2 with Kuyt up front with Torres and Aurelio and Johnson as wing-backs. That would put Mascherano and Lucas in central midfield with Benayoun given licence to get forward. I know it didn't work against Sunderland but Rafa doesn't have a lot of options, especially if Insua is injured as well - that certainly seemed to be the case against Lyon. Mascherano was missing at the Stadium Of Light and we couldn't get hold of the ball in central midfield. Should Benitez go for a 4-4-2, I would like to see Agger or even Carra rather than Lucas in the middle of the park but I don't think that will happen.
But it's not all doom and gloom. Manchester United have been spluttering this season and have ridden their luck against Sunderland and Bolton in recent games. They are missing a few as well - possibly Rooney included - and have been leaking goals. And there's another reason to be cheerful in that United had a tough game in Moscow on Wednesday and teams coming off away ties in Europe have a modest Premier League record.
Looking at betting opportunities, the professional bet is for both teams to score in the game at 4-5 with Ladbrokes. Considering the way both teams have been defending, the game is unlikely to be cagey.
Looking for bigger odds, let's be optimistic and have a couple of bets. Firstly on a 2-2 draw, which is a 16-1 chance with Blue Square. Then take Liverpool to win 2-1 at 11-1 with the same firm.
Selections: Professional bet: Both teams to score at 4-5 with Ladbrokes Game to end 2-2 at 16-1 with Blue Square Liverpool to win 2-1 at 11-1 with Blue Square
As a fan, it's never easy to tip against a Liverpool win but the Reds are not a great price to come out on top at Sunderland this weekend. Just 11-10 is about the best you'll do and that's hardly attractive.
We scraped three points there last season thanks to Nando but it was a poor match and the Black Cats have improved a lot over the past 12 months. Our away form has been patchy to say the least with two defeats away from Anfield already.
On the plus side, we have a cracking record on Wearside with just one defeat in our past 25 clashes with Sunderland up there.
But on the negative, Gerrard and Torres have been struggling with injuries all week and both will be missing. It gives all the usual suspects a chance to stick the knife in and go on about Liverpool being a two-man team but we will be relying on Kuyt and Benayoun to hit the target.
It may even give a chance for crying hole (AKA Ryan Babel) to start but he may have cried wolf too many times for Rafa to take the risk.
To add to matters Javier Mascherano, Lucas and Emiliano Insua are coming into the game on the back of long journeys to play for Brazil and Argentina.
I'd be happy with a draw in the circumstances and that's not a bad bet at 5-2 with Betfred.
THE last time Liverpool played at Stamford Bridge it was a 4-4 thriller - but the chances of that happening again look as likely as a David Moyes smile.
Should you fancy it, you can get 350-1 with Paddy Power. More realistic is a low scoring draw.
Liverpool may have fired 22 league goals but they haven't played anyone of Chelsea's ability.
Both teams have got points to prove - Chelsea after losing to Wigan in their last league outing and Liverpool after crashing at Fiorentina.
And with that in mind, there's a good chance of a stalemate and history tells us there's been four 0-0s betweeen the sides in just four years.
You can get 9-1 on a 0-0 draw with Sporting Bet.
If you're feeling a little more optimistic you can get a healthy 13-5 on a Reds' win (Ladbrokes).
Scoring-wise Fernando Torres is the man on fire, sitting top of the scorers' chart with eight goals. Coral's 2-1 for anytime goal is a tempter.
THE REDS are out to 10/1, from 9/1, to win the Champions League following the flop in Florence. But Rafa Benitez's men are still 2/7 to qualify, 5/2 to miss out, for the knock out stages despite Fiorentina's triumph.
I can't see us missing out on the next stage though – I think we'll beat Lyon and Fiorentina at home and Debrecen away and that will be more than enough.
Match preview: Fiorentina v Liverpool Champions League, Tues Sep 29, KO: 7.45
There was a lot of huffing and puffing as Liverpool laboured to beat a Debrecen side that were a bit better than expected last time. But we got the job done and can just edge a tight game in Florence tonight. The Italians haven't been firing on all cylinders this season but are unbeaten at home where their defence has been tight. That said, they haven't come up against anyone with Liverpool's class - and have been toppled on the road by Roma and Lyon, two sides you'd fancy us to beat. The Viola drew two and lost one of their home Champions League group games last season so there's nothing to fear from Adrian Mutu and Co. Rafa's European record speaks for itself and a repeat of the 1-0 scoreline achieved against Inter on Liverpool's last trip to Italy is on the cards. So the choice is to back Liverpool to win to nil at 23-10 with Paddy Power or have a bet on the 0-1 scoreline at 6-1 generally with a saver on 0-2 at 8-1 with Paddy. That's what I'm doing. Looking at the goalscorer markets, this is the kind of game where Dirk Kuyt often pops up and he's worth a look for the first goal at 8-1 with totesport. SELECTION: Half your stake on Liverpool to win 1-0 (6-1 general) and half on Liverpool to win 2-0 (8-1 Paddy Power)
Match preview Liverpool v Hull Saturday, 3pm Hull’s 2-2 draw at Anfield last season was one of the games that cost us the title – and lightning won’t strike twice this Saturday. Two things have happened since that day in December – Hull have transformed into a mid-table Championship side and the Reds have learned how to break down teams at home. That’s not to take Hull lightly but Phil Brown is still paying the price for his infamous on-field rant. The Tigers have won a grand total of two from 27 league games since then - and they look destined for the drop unless things turn around quickly. Liverpool had to huff and puff to beat West Ham on Saturday but they got the job done and sit third in the table. There is still lots to worry about, with the defence looking weaker than normal as teams suss out that our two full-backs – excellent players they may be – are both poor in the air. That’s put the pressure on the two centre-backs at set-pieces with predictable results. But the good thing is that Benitez hasn’t gone down the route of beefing up the defence and seems to have adopted the view that it’s better to attack. But enough of the waffle – how do we make a shilling out of a game where the Reds are 1-6 for the win? Fernando Torres’ record at home is amazing – with only the Burnley game drawing a blank in the league this season. So with 3-1 on offer with Sky Bet about El Nino bagging at least a double, that looks the way to go.
SELECTION: Fernando Torres to score two or more goals at 3-1 with Sky Bet
Leeds v Liverpool: Carling Cup Third Round, September 22, Kick off 7.45pm (Live Sky Sports 2)
LIKE it or not, the Carling Cup is bottom of the list of priorities for Liverpool and Rafa Benitez is sure to give the fringe players a run tonight at Elland Road.
Saying that the side should not be short on quality. Daniel Agger and Fabio Aurelio look set to start as does Ryan Babel, who has denied he wants a move away from Anfield.
Babel played the "lost in translation" card in explaining why stories emerged quoting him as wanting a move to Ajax. But whether you believe him or not he is sure to be fired up for tonight's clash after two decent showings from the bench last week.
If you regularly back Fernando Torres and Steven Gerrrard in the goalscoring market, save your money. Neither is likely to start tonight.
West Ham v Liverpool (Saturday, September 19, kick-off 5.30pm, live on ESPN)
A FLICK through the cliche book shows that winning while not playing well is "the sign of champions".
It's not the really the time for that kind of talk right now - but there's no doubt that's what Liverpool are doing at the moment.
The Reds are hit and miss over 90 minutes at this stage of the season but are still racking up the wins - and the goals (eight in 3 games).
The 1-0 win over Debrecen was the third in a row and the smart money is on Liverpool to extend that run at Upton Park.
Rafa Benitez has virtually a full strength squad at his disposal with just Daniel Agger, who is close to a return, Nabil El Zhar and Alberto Aquilani missing out.
The line up is likely to include three former Hammers: Glen Johnson, Javier Mascherano and Yossi Benayoun, the star of the show in the last league outing against Burnley, when the Reds won 4-0.
West Ham have failed to score in their last three games against Liverpool.
And Gianfranco Zola's side have suffered five defeats in a row against Big Four sides, failing to score each time.
So whatever your punt 'West Ham nil' should be part of it.
ADVICE:
Prediction
West Ham 0 Liverpool 2 (13-2 Skybet)
Yossi Benayoun to score
The win market is pretty crap as a Reds win is widely expected, best price is 4-7 (various). Fernando Torres will always be a good goalscorer bet but, by his own admission, he isn't in top form. Yossi Benayoun, Liverpool's joint top-scorer on three goals, is in good form and facing his former club. He's 11-4 (extrabet) to be an anytime goalscorer and 9-1 to be first goalscorer (extrabet).
Steven Gerrard to score from outside the box in 90 minutes (8-1 Paddy Power)
Stevie was inches away from another 20-yard beauty in the week and he's sure to try his luck against the Hammers.
If Liverpool get beat by Debrecen tonight I'll bear my backside in Woolies' window – and the shop's been shut for six months. Whichever way you look at it, the Reds should have far too much power for the meek Magyars.
They were stuffed by that team in Salford on their last visit to England in 2005 and are likely to freeze on the Anfield stage tonight. We saw against Burnley what Liverpool can do when they click against a modest team and, hopefully, Rafa will keep the tinkering to the minimum.
But how do you make a few bob on a team that's 1-10 to win the game. If you want to do a Doddy and get the life savings out from under the bed, this is probably the night to do it – with a 10% return not bad for 90 minutes' work.
In the real world, the Reds are 10-11 to win both halves with Sky Bet which isn't half-bad for anyone who likes a shorty. Looking at the shite or bust column, Fernando Torres is 14-1 to bag a hat-trick with Corals, while Stevie Gee is 25s with Betfred to hit three.
But Dirk Kuyt has a decent record in Europe and hopefully he'll be kept through the middle. So the advice is Dirk Kuyt to score two or more in the game at 15-2 with William Hill. And I wouldn't put anyone off a small nibble on the Dutchman making it three at 33s with the same firm.
If you can, wait until the teams are announced just in case Rafa's done something daft with the team but if he starts, Dirk will get in the goals.
ADVICE: Liverpool to win both halves at 10-11 with Sky Bet
Dirk Kuyt to score two or more at 15-2 with William Hill
Betting preview: Liverpool v Burnley - Saturday, 3pm
HERE'S a stat to chew over before the Reds take on Burnley on Saturday - Liverpool haven't lost against a newly-promoted side in the past nine seasons.
At a best price of 1-5, we won't get rich backing Liverpool to beat the Clarets but there are a couple of other markets to take an interest in.
We got some joy against Bolton backing Torres and Gerrard to hit the target and that's worth another go at 11-4 with Sky Bet.
Stevie's goalscoring form continued against Croatia in an England shirt, while Torres has an incredible record of hitting the target at Anfield.
SELECTIONS: Torres and Gerrard to both score at 11-4 with Sky Bet
THREE games into the season and already it's a "must-win".
Ridiculous but true, and to make matters worse Rafa is favourite to be the first manager in the Premier League to get the chop (11-10 SkyBet, 3-1 Coral).
A bet on Benitez doesn't really add up though - if Liverpool are as skint as everyone says they are how will they pay off Rafa AND cough up the cash to tempt an incoming manager?
Back to the match, and a lot of Reds will have a twitchy bum thinking about this one.
But that slight fear stems from the days of Big (fat head) Sam Allardyce. His up and at 'em style bothered the Reds many a time.
It's a different story under Gary Megson so far - he's made the mistake of trying to get Wanderers playing football.
Our record against Bolton is a lot better than you'd think - we've won our last five, including two at the Reebok.
And in those games we've fired 15 goals, conceding just one.
Bolton are yet to score in the Premier League this season and with the Reds smarting from the Monday night defeat to Aston Villa, and the clamour to write them off in the wake of that game, you'd think they would be in the mood to put things right.
Fernando Torres and Steven Gerrard were both off-colour on Monday - and Liverpool's world-class pair rarely have two bad games in a row.
With fall-guy Lucas again in the spotlight for the all the wrong reasons after an own goal against Villa, he could be benched with Gerrard dropping to midfield and Yossi Benayoun playing behind Torres.
New signing Sotirios Kyrgiakos could start in place of Martin Skrtel who is still nursing a broken jaw.
The 6ft 5ins Greek defender could offer a goal threat - he scored eight goals in two seasons for Eintracht Frankfurt, not too shabby for a centre half.
STATS v BOLTON:
Total Games 143. Goals Scored 241, Goals Conceded 186. Win % 41.96, Wins 60, Draws 37, Lost 46.
LAST SEASON:
November 15, 2008@Reebok: Bolton 0-2 Livepool (Kuyt 28, Gerrard 72). December 26, 2008@Anfield: Liverpool 3-0 Bolton (Riera 25, Keane 52, 57)
ADVICE: Liverpool were poor against Villa but still created a hatful of chances while Bolton are struggling. Hard to see anything but an away win.
Liverpool 4-7 to win (various)
Key pair Torres and Gerrard will have taken recent criticism from Benitez to heart and will be keen to put things right.
Gerrard and Torres to both score against Bolton (7-2 SkyBet)
The Reds will be quick out of the traps as they try to grab the win early and put their poor start to bed.
Half-time/Full-time betting - Liverpool-Liverpool- i.e. to be winning at the end of each half (6-4 William Hill)
Sotirios Kyrgiakos will be eager to impress on his debut and - unlike Skrtel who stayed back because of his jaw injury against Villa - will go up for corners.
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